A Mason-Dixon poll shows the break 47-41 with McCain leading. That means Obama's closed by two points since Rasmussen polled the state in early June.
Chuck Todd said so on "Meet the Press."
Also keep in mind a poll conducted by Orion Strategies in late September showing that 49 percent in West Virginia believe Obama's either a Muslim or a member of some "other" secret, non-Christian religion. (The poll was presided over by the state's semi-official political pundit, its version of Larry Sabato, West Virginia Wesleyan poltical historian Robert Rupp.)
I can speak with some authority about the spike in Obama support in the rural eastern mountains of the state, where I occupy positions putting me in regular contact with voters in two large but sparsely populated counties. Yes, there is a discernible movement in Obama's favor, but it's not a vote for him, it's an angry vote against the status quo. That's okay, we'll take it every day of the week, but it reflects that West Virginia's cultural conservatism remains a decisive factor in national election voting patterns.
In other words, a state once reliably Democratic in any year other than a Republican landslide (Eisenhower, 1972, 1984) now is a state that might vote for the Democratic presidential nominee in a year shaping up as Blue State landslide.
The heart & soul of rank-and-file West Virginia Dems and party regulars belong to Bill and Hillary Clinton (though Hillary, in my opinion, continues to have negatives off the charts with many men and with significant numbers of independent voters regardless of gender).
So, let me close with a few anecdotes: it was reported to me that the week the economy crashed and Obama's chances for victory became widely recognized everywhere, gun sales spiked like never before in one small county seat's popular sports shop. The owner says it's at least partly because his clientele believes an Obama win is likely and it's feared that he'll take their guns.
Two weeks ago, in a neighboring rural, sparsely populated, mountainous county at a rally attended by at least 220 voters, two calls by speakers for backing Barack and the entire ticket were met with chilly silence except for scattered applause from the Barack hardcore. (However, I believe most of the party regulars in attendance now are reconciled to voting for him but with no enthusiasm.)
One more anecdote, an influential 30-something who works at a local sawmill which is the economic lifeblood of several small communities is regularly asking me for bumper stickers and signs. He said, "You see, none of the guys before wanted to have anything to do with him because they didn't want to be seen as lining up with a [n-word]. Now, they're saying they're gonna vote for the [n-word]." I replied, "So, they're willing to vote for the 'Moos-lum sumbitch now, huh?" He answered, "A lot are, but the ones that won't commit say it's because of guns." I said, "Well tell'em to stop seeing those guns as extensions of their dicks and vote their damn wallets this time. Tell'em Obama don't want their dicks or their guns." He said, "That's more or less what I been tryin' to say. Can ya get me some more bumper stickers or signs to give out?"
No matter how West Virginia votes, I love the 'necks and the blue-collar workers if only because they don't mince words. They tell you exactly and unapologetically where they stand. They know their attitudes towards Barack are tainted reprehensibly, but they don't run from it.